S&P 500 Performance During Epidemics

After weeks of headlines about the coronavirus outbreak, markets have been caught in a volatile pattern of surges and retreats. Here’s what you should know:

Why are markets so volatile?

Disease outbreaks are hard to predict and come with a great deal of uncertainty that can make investors nervous—particularly after a period of record market gains.

As the epidemic spreads beyond China, investors worry that it could cause serious disruptions to trade and the interconnected global economy.

How long will the volatility last?

It’s hard to say. Though the human cost of an outbreak like Coronavirus is tragic, it’s unclear how

widespread the economic fallout will actually be. We can’t predict what markets will do, but this isn’t the first time we’ve grappled with market reactions to an epidemic.

Here are some examples from previous outbreaks:

Chart source: CNBC, Yahoo Finance

Though the past can’t predict the future, we can see that historically, markets reacted to epidemics with panic selling but recovered after the initial outbreak. However, epidemics don’t happen in isolation; the underlying economic and market fundamentals will influence how investors react long-term.

Pullbacks and periods of volatility happen regularly, for many reasons.

Whether the cause is an epidemic, geopolitical crisis, natural disaster, or financial issue, markets often react negatively to bad news and then recover. Sometimes, the push-and-pull can go on for weeks and months, which can be stressful, even when it’s a normal part of the market cycle.

The best thing you can do is stick to your strategies and avoid emotional decision-making. Why? Because emotional reactions don’t lead to smart investing decisions. The biggest mistake investors can make right now is to overreact instead of sticking to their strategies.

We’re keeping an eye on how the epidemic may affect our clients and will be in contact if adjustments to your strategies need to be made.

Have questions about your personal situation? Don’t hesitate to call our office at (813) 286-7776.

PFG PRIVATE WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC
www.pfgprivatewealth.com

Chart Source:

S&P 500 performance during outbreak:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/24/avoid-this-investing-mistake-as-coronavirus-fearsgrip-the-markets.html
S&P 500 performance six months after outbreak: Yahoo Finance. 6-month performance between open of first trading day of the month after end of outbreak to adjusted close of final trading day of the sixth month.
SARS: April 1, 2003 – Sept 30, 2003
MERS: Dec 3, 2012 – May 31, 2013
Ebola: March 3, 2014 – Aug 29, 2014
Zika: March 1, 2016 – Aug 31, 2016

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser.  Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. This material and information are not intended to provide tax or legal advice.  Investments involve risk and, unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed.  Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed herein. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. 

The Impact of Coronavirus for Investors

What we’re doing with our portfolios:

Public health outbreaks and epidemics like the recent coronavirus can quickly scare investors and, eventually, affect economies and businesses. The recent coronavirus outbreak has shut down airports, halted trade, and led to the rapid construction of new hospitals in China. The effects of the outbreak may push China’s economy into a period of slower growth, with stocks trading lower as investors seek protection.

So, what does that mean for the portfolios we run?

Key Takeaways

  • Looking at nine major outbreaks since 1998, there is little evidence linking global epidemics with long-term investment fundamentals.
  • The Chinese economy may slow, perhaps even meaningfully, but that is not a reason to invest or divest. Long-term investing is often best disconnected from short-term economic reactions, so we implore investors to maintain their focus on what matters.
  • Across the portfolios we run, we do have a relatively small exposure to Chinese assets (both directly and indirectly) but remain confident these holdings will deliver positive outcomes for long-term investors.

Rest assured our portfolio managers are closely monitoring your investments.  Please reach out to your advisor with any questions.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC

A Message From Your Portfolio Managers

Volatility will always be around on Wall Street, and as you invest for the long term, you must learn to tolerate it. Rocky moments, fortunately, are not the norm.

Since the end of World War II, there have been dozens of Wall Street shocks. Wall Street has seen 56 pullbacks (retreats of 5-9.99%) in the past 73 years; the S&P index dipped 6.9% in this last one. On average, the benchmark fully rebounded from these pullbacks within two months. The S&P has also seen 22 corrections (descents of 10-19.99%) and 12 bear markets (falls of 20% or more) in the post-WWII era.

Even with all those setbacks, the S&P has grown exponentially larger. During the month World War II ended (September 1945), its closing price hovered around 16. At this writing, it is above 2,750. Those two numbers communicate the value of staying invested for the long run.

 This current bull market has witnessed five corrections, and nearly a sixth (a 9.8% pullback in 2011, a year that also saw a 19.4% correction). It has risen roughly 335% since its beginning even with those stumbles. Investors who stayed in equities through those downturns watched the major indices soar to all-time highs.

 As all this history shows, waiting out the shocks may be highly worthwhile. The alternative is trying to time the market. That can be a fool’s errand. To succeed at market timing, investors have to be right twice, which is a tall order. Instead of selling in response to paper losses, perhaps they should respond to the fear of missing out on great gains during a recovery and hang on through the choppiness.

After all, volatility creates buying opportunities. Shares of quality companies are suddenly available at a discount. Investors effectively pay a lower average cost per share to obtain them.

 Bad market days shock us because they are uncommon. If pullbacks or corrections occurred regularly, they would discourage many of us from investing in equities; we would look elsewhere to try and build wealth. A decade ago, in the middle of the terrible 2007-09 bear market, some investors convinced themselves that bad days were becoming the new normal. History proved them wrong.

As you ride out this current outbreak of volatility, keep two things in mind. One, your time horizon. You are investing for goals that may be five, ten, twenty, or thirty years in the future. One bad market week, month, or year is but a blip on that timeline and is unlikely to have a severe impact on your long-run asset accumulation strategy. Two, remember that there have been more good days on Wall Street than bad ones. The S&P 500 rose in 53.7% of its trading sessions during the years 1950-2017, and it advanced in 68 of the 92 years ending in 2017.3,4

 Sudden volatility should not lead you to exit the market. If you react anxiously and move out of equities in response to short-term downturns, you may impede your progress toward your long-term goals.  We are continually monitoring and evaluating your portfolio and will make adjustments when necessary.

Thank you for your trust,

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC

John Teixeira Earns the Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) Designation

pfg private wealth management

We are excited to announce that John Teixeira recently obtained the Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) designation. The CIMA® designation is delivered by Investments and Wealth InstituteTM (Institute) and taught in conjunction with the Yale School of Management

Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) certification is the peak international, technical portfolio construction program for investment consultants, analysts, financial advisors and wealth management professionals. The CIMA® program is distinctive as one of only a few global certifications in financial services to meet international accreditation and quality standards (ANSI/ISO 17024) for personnel certification programs.

The CIMA® certification identifies individuals who have met extensive experience and ethical requirements and successfully completed advanced investment management consulting coursework provided through one of three top-20 business schools in the United States: The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, or the Yale School of Management. CIMA® professionals must pass a qualification and certification exam covering a wide range of in-depth investment topics. Additionally, those who earn the certification must agree to meet ongoing continuing education requirements and adhere to the Institute’s Code of Professional Responsibility.

CIMA® advisors have completed a rigorous process and have demonstrated knowledge and competency in a variety of investment management and portfolio construction topics. The CIMA® advisor learns sophisticated, technical investment concepts and how to apply them for individual and institutional clients.  Fewer than four out of 10 candidates who start the program successfully pass all requirements to earn the certification.

Please join us in congratulating John on this accomplishment!

Jeff Perry Earns the Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) Designation

pfg private wealth management

We are excited to announce that Jeff Perry recently obtained the Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) designation. The CIMA® designation is delivered by Investments and Wealth InstituteTM (Institute) and taught in conjunction with the Yale School of Management

Certified Investment Management Analyst® (CIMA®) certification is the peak international, technical portfolio construction program for investment consultants, analysts, financial advisors and wealth management professionals. The CIMA® program is distinctive as one of only a few global certifications in financial services to meet international accreditation and quality standards (ANSI/ISO 17024) for personnel certification programs.

The CIMA® certification identifies individuals who have met extensive experience and ethical requirements and successfully completed advanced investment management consulting coursework provided through one of three top-20 business schools in the United States: The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, The Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, or the Yale School of Management. CIMA® professionals must pass a qualification and certification exam covering a wide range of in-depth investment topics. Additionally, those who earn the certification must agree to meet ongoing continuing education requirements and adhere to the Institute’s Code of Professional Responsibility.

CIMA® advisors have completed a rigorous process and have demonstrated knowledge and competency in a variety of investment management and portfolio construction topics. The CIMA® advisor learns sophisticated, technical investment concepts and how to apply them for individual and institutional clients.  Fewer than four out of 10 candidates who start the program successfully pass all requirements to earn the certification.

Please join us in congratulating Jeff on this accomplishment!

 

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment adviser.