Comparing the Cost of Renting vs Buying in Today’s Market

Rent vs buy – it’s a big question with big financial implications. Do you make a down payment, take out a mortgage, and build equity? Or do you rent, give yourself more financial flexibility, but miss out on the opportunity to build equity? This month’s chart, which tracks year-over-year growth of monthly rent and mortgage payments since the early 1980s, compares the cost of renting vs buying a home. Looking at the chart, one trend is immediately clear – the cost of renting is less volatile than buying.

Why are mortgage payments more volatile? Purchasing a home is naturally more volatile due to fluctuating home prices and mortgage rates, which directly impact both the loan size and interest charged. For example, monthly mortgage payments grew rapidly in 2005 and 2006 with home price inflation. After the housing bubble popped during the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage payments declined -25% in 2009 as home prices and mortgage rates fell, even as rents continued to grow.

The past few years highlighted the volatility of mortgage payments as homebuyers felt the strain of rising home prices and mortgage rates. S&P’s 20-City Composite Index rose each month from June 2020 through June 2022, with home price growth peaking at +21.2% year-over-year in April 2022. In parallel, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed from less than 3% in early 2021 to 7% today. While rent payments are rising at the fastest pace in four decades, mortgage payments are rising even faster due to the combination of increasing home prices and mortgage rates.

How do you navigate the current housing market? This is a unique housing market because of the volatility in home prices, mortgage payments, and rent payments. Data shows home prices declined each month from July 2022 through February 2023, but the challenge is prices are still elevated, banks are tightening lending standards, and mortgage rates sit near 7%. Plus, homeowners who refinanced in the past few years will give up their low rate when they sell. Since buying a home is one of the biggest purchases most individuals will make, we recommend taking the time to make an informed decision. Our team stands ready to help when it comes to thinking about your investment portfolio and overall financial plan.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

Stocks Diverge, Yields Rise, & Artificial Intelligence Theme Gains Traction

Monthly Market Summary

  • The S&P 500 Index gained +0.5% in May, outperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s -0.8% return. There was significant sector return dispersion with Technology, the top performer, gaining +8.9% and Energy, the worst performer, returning -10%.
  • Corporate investment grade bonds produced a -1.8% total return as interest rates rose, underperforming corporate high yield bonds’ -1.2% total return.
  • The MSCI EAFE Index of developed market stocks traded down -4.0%, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Market Index’s -2.4% return.

May 2023 Recap: Stocks Continue to Diverge & Treasury Yields Rise

May marked a continuation of this year’s investment trends. In the equity market, large cap stocks outperformed small cap stocks for a third consecutive month, while Growth stocks continued to outperform Value stocks. The Nasdaq-100 Index of growth stocks returned +7.9% in May, bringing its year-to-date gain to +30.9%. Congressional debt ceiling negotiations were the primary focus in the credit market, where a sharp rise in yields led both Treasury and corporate bond prices to decline. The Bloomberg Commodity Index traded lower for a sixth consecutive month, with declines across energy and metals. While falling commodity prices could help ease inflation, the declines suggest demand is softening and economic activity is slowing.

One theme we are watching closely is the return gap within the equity market. As an example, the S&P 500, which weights companies by market capitalization, is up +9.7% year-to-date. However, the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500 has posted a -0.7% total return, underperforming the market-cap weighted version by -10.3%. This performance dispersion theme is also evident across S&P 500 sectors. Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary each traded higher in May, with year-to-date returns exceeding +17.5%. In contrast, the eight remaining S&P 500 sectors each traded lower in May with negative returns thus far in 2023. The sizable performance gaps indicate that while the S&P 500 is trading higher, the gains and strength are concentrated in a relatively small group of sectors and mega cap stocks.

Investors Excited by the Artificial Intelligence Revolution

One of the factors contributing to Technology’s strong 2023 return is excitement around artificial intelligence, or AI. AI, which refers to the ability of a digital computer or a machine to perform tasks commonly associated with human intelligence, is being hailed as the next big technological advance. It has the potential to revolutionize the economy by increasing productivity, replacing and/or automating certain jobs, and expanding corporate profit margins. Companies are mentioning AI more on earnings calls, and investors are rushing to find the big AI winners. While AI has the potential to be transformational, we believe the AI revolution is in its early innings. We will continue to watch the theme, but investors’ excitement may be premature today.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

Q1 2023 Earnings Season Recap & Management Commentary

More than 90% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q1 2023 earnings, with results exceeding expectations. Figure 1 shows 78% of S&P 500 companies reported Q1 earnings that surpassed their estimates, up from 68% in Q4 2022 and above the 20-year average of 67%. The above-average number of earnings beats is encouraging, but there is a potential explanation. Figure 2 shows first quarter earnings estimates for the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 were revised lower throughout Q1. Those downward revisions may have set the bar too low, leading to more companies beating expectations. Supporting this thesis, estimates were revised higher over the past month as more companies reported first quarter results. The upward revisions, combined with the 78% beat rate, suggest Wall Street analysts were too negative.

Companies are also providing additional context on earnings calls. Here’s what some well-known companies are saying about the current economic environment:

• UPS (Logistics): “… volume was higher than we expected in January, close to our plan in February and then moved significantly lower than our plan in March…”

• Bank of America (Diversified Bank): “Consumers’ financial positions remain generally healthy. They are employed with generally higher wages, continue to have strong account balances and have good access to credit.”

• Caterpillar (Machinery): “Backlog ended the quarter at $30.4 billion, flat relative to the fourth quarter of 2022.”

• Chipotle Mexican Grill (Restaurant): “… we’re seeing new customers come in and we’re also seeing existing customers increase their frequency.”

Numerous companies report the U.S. consumer is financially healthy, such as strong account balances at Bank of America and more meals out at Chipotle. This is positive because the consumer historically accounts for ~70% of U.S. economic activity. However, commentary from other companies suggests activity may be peaking. UPS’s declining package volumes suggest consumer spending fell as the quarter progressed, while Caterpillar’s flat backlog indicates construction, mining, and drilling activity remains elevated but may be peaking. The mixed messages explain why analysts were cautious entering earnings season. Our view is earnings will remain in focus this year as the market deciphers how higher interest rates will impact the economy.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

Consumers Remain Resilient as the U.S. Economy Slows in Q1

Monthly Market Summary

  • The S&P 500 Index gained +1.6% in April, outperforming the Russell 2000 Index’s -1.8% return. There was limited sector return dispersion, although defensive sectors broadly outperformed cyclical sectors.
  • Corporate investment grade bonds produced a +0.6% total return, slightly outperforming corporate high yield bonds’ +0.2% total return.
  • The MSCI EAFE Index of developed market stocks gained +2.9%, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the MSCI Emerging Market Index’s -0.8% return.

Strong Consumer Spending Offsets Weak Housing & Business Investment

The U.S. economy grew at a +1.1% annual rate in the first quarter of 2023, marking a decline from the +2.6% growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2022. It was the third consecutive quarter of growth, but it was also the second consecutive quarter where the rate of growth slowed compared to the prior quarter. Looking at the numbers, the data shows there are pockets of strength in the U.S. economy, such as strong consumer spending on goods and services and increased government spending. However, other areas remain challenged, such as single-family housing and business spending on computers, equipment, and restocking inventories.

The first quarter GDP report sends mixed signals. On one side, the slower growth indicates the Federal Reserve’s plan to raise interest rates is working. The central bank’s goal is to slow the economy enough to ease inflation without tipping the U.S. into a recession. Striking the right balance is difficult, but a +1.1% growth rate could be a step in the right direction. However, on the other side, consumer spending remains resilient even with higher interest rates, which suggests the Fed’s plan might not be working well enough. Now, the Fed must decide whether it should continue to raise interest rates or pause and assess the situation. The decision is tricky, because it usually takes time for higher interest rates to affect the economy.

A Quick Recap of Year-to-Date Market Trends

Stocks and bonds are off to a positive start in 2023 after a tough 2022. Large cap stocks lead the way, with the S&P 500 gaining +9.2% YTD compared to the Russell 2000’s +0.8% gain. Large cap stocks’ performance is mainly due to the big technology companies like Microsoft, Google, and Apple, with the Nasdaq 100 returning +21.3%. In credit markets, investment grade corporate bonds have generated a +5.3% total return, outpacing high yield’s +3.9% total return. Looking at the headlines, inflation dropped to a 5% annualized pace in March, home sales rose during the spring months, and oil prices are significantly below their peak from last June. However, the path forward may be challenging and volatile. Investors are concerned about the impact of higher interest rates on the economy and banking system, the number of job openings is shrinking, and Congress is debating the debt ceiling.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

Data Point– Fewer Shipping Containers Arriving at U.S. Ports

This month’s chart explores an alternative dataset, the number of shipping containers coming into U.S. ports. Alternative datasets like this are often used by institutional investors, such as hedge funds, to identify patterns and trends that may not be visible in traditional economic datasets. Why are shipping containers relevant? The volume of loaded container imports can act as a predictor of upcoming economic activity, as they represent expected demand for goods, which is closely connected to consumer spending and overall economic growth.

Figure 1 graphs the total loaded container imports across six major U.S. ports every month for the last five years. The years 2018 and 2019 establish a pre-pandemic baseline, including seasonal trends, for monthly container imports. Container volumes were normal in January 2020 but then plunged in February and March and remained weak for multiple months as the pandemic shut down the global economy. Import volumes rebounded in the second half of 2020 as the economy reopened and remained above-average in 2021 as consumers spent heavily on goods. Container volumes peaked in May 2022, but since then, have declined in seven of the last nine months. February 2023’s import volume was the third lowest month in the last five years, behind only February and March 2020 in the early months of the pandemic.

What is the data telling us? Fewer container imports indicate the economy is reverting to pre-pandemic norms. This drop could help alleviate supply chain bottlenecks and ease inflationary pressures, a positive development after inflation rose to a 40-year high during the pandemic. In addition, the decline in container imports may provide insight into upcoming economic trends. Businesses typically import less goods when demand is anticipated to decline, and declining imports could be an indication that businesses expect economic activity to slow. The question is whether the drop in shipping container volume is related to seasonal trends or the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes, which are designed to ease inflation by reducing demand.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.