Why Interest Rates Could Remain High Heading Into 2024

The current economic environment is drawing comparisons to the 1970s. In the early 1970s, oil prices surged following OPEC’s oil embargo, and U.S. fiscal deficits expanded as government spending increased. Today, oil prices are elevated due to supply concerns, and fiscal deficits are expanding as the government invests in infrastructure improvements and renewable energy. While the 1970s and today share rising oil prices and budget deficits, the most direct link between the two periods is high inflation, as shown in Figure 1 below.

The chart compares the path of inflation during the 1970s and today. The numbers differ, but a similar pattern emerges. In both periods, inflationary pressures began building early when interest rates were low in the 1960s and 2010s, respectively. Inflation subsequently eased as economic activity slowed around the 1970 recession and the 2020 COVID pandemic. However, inflation later reversed higher in both periods, with oil prices spiking in the early 1970s and supply chain disruptions following the 2020 pandemic. In both instances, the Fed responded by aggressively raising interest rates, causing inflation pressures to ease.

However, the 1970s serve as a cautionary tale, as inflation reaccelerated to over 13% by the end of the decade. The rapid rise in inflation prompted the Fed to take drastic action and raise the federal funds rate to a staggering 20% in early 1980. An inflation resurgence like the late 1970s is the primary risk today, which is why the Fed is hesitant to declare victory despite the recent dip in inflation. The Fed’s fear is that the economy will re-accelerate and inflation will run away like in the late 1970s. While this is not necessarily the Fed’s forecast, it is widely discussed as a potential risk. The Fed is determined to avoid repeating its errors from the 1970s. The implication is that the Fed may decide to keep interest rates higher for longer, which could keep the cost of capital high in the coming years. Consumers may find it more expensive to buy homes and vehicles or refinance their existing mortgages. Likewise, businesses may find it more expensive to fund operations, finance inventory, and reinvest in their business. Given this uncertainty, it is wise to take a long-term perspective when dealing with interest rates. Borrowers can put themselves in a difficult position if they take out a loan with the expectation of refinancing, only to find that rates remain high.

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The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

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S&P 500 and Dow Jones Trade Within 5% of Their All-Time Closing Highs

Monthly Market Summary

The S&P 500 Index gained 3.3% in July but underperformed the Russell 2000 Index’s 6.1% increase. All eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher, led by the Energy, Communication Service, and Financial sectors.
Corporate investment grade bonds produced a 0.1% total return in July, underperforming corporate high yield bonds’ 1.1% total return.
The MSCI EAFE Index of developed market stocks rose by 2.7%, underperforming the MSCI Emerging Market Index’s 6.0% return.

S&P 500 Trades Toward its All-Time Closing High from January 2022

The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to five months in July, bringing its year-to-date total return to 20.5%. The S&P 500 has now recovered most of its losses from 2022 and is currently trading less than 5% below its all-time closing high set in January 2022. On a related note, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which tracks 30 prominent U.S. companies, recorded a 13-day winning streak in July – its longest since 1987. Like the S&P 500, the Dow Jones is also trading less than 5% below its all-time closing high, set back in January 2022.

What is fueling the stock market’s gains? In one word: expectations. The U.S. economy has defied expectations for a recession, with job growth, consumer spending, and corporate earnings remaining resilient despite higher interest rates. The recent downward trend in inflation data is adding to the optimism, with investors hopeful that the Federal Reserve can achieve a soft landing or potentially avoid a recession altogether. Despite the favorable trends in the first half of 2023, there is concern that the Fed may need to keep raising interest rates due to recent increases in home prices and commodity prices.

Gasoline Prices Rise to a 3-Month High, Prompting Inflation Concerns

Gasoline prices are rising again, sparking concerns among consumers and central bankers alike. According to AAA, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline reached a three-month high of $3.75 on July 31^st. The recent rise in oil prices is driving this increase, with West Texas Intermediate crude hitting $80 per barrel. Other contributing factors include supply cuts by OPEC and Russia, extreme heat disruptions at refineries that are leading to lower gasoline inventories, and overall optimism about the global economy and demand for oil. While current prices are still below the level of $4.22 per gallon one year ago, the rise in fuel costs could slow the Fed’s progress in curbing inflation and may even require additional interest rate hikes by the central bank. Markets will pay close attention to the energy and overall commodity markets in the upcoming months as the situation unfolds.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

Navigating the Changing Landscape of Income Generation: Bonds vs. Stocks

Investors can earn income in one of two primary ways – dividends paid on stocks or interest paid on bonds. While both generate income, stocks and bonds have remarkably different risk profiles. Stocks tend to be more volatile than bonds because stocks are more sensitive to the state of the economy and changes in a company’s financial performance. Stocks also face a higher degree of income uncertainty since companies may choose, but are not obligated, to pay dividends to shareholders. In contrast, borrowers are contractually required to pay interest on their bonds at specified intervals. Bondholders also rank more senior in a company’s capital structure and are typically paid back before stockholders if a company declares bankruptcy. While bonds tend to produce lower price returns, their contractual interest payments and seniority may make them a less risky income source.

The last decade of low interest rates made it difficult for savers to generate income. If savers wanted to earn more income than bonds offered, they turned to the stock market. Figure 1 below tracks the number of S&P 500 companies with a dividend yield above the yield on a 5-year Treasury bond. From 2008 through 2022, many S&P 500 companies offered higher yields than the 5-year Treasury bond. However, the situation changed considerably during the past 12 months as interest rates rose. As of July 11^th, only 51 companies in the S&P 500 paid a dividend yield above the yield on a 5-year Treasury bond. It is the fewest companies since 2007, a period when savers could generate more income by owning bonds rather than stocks.

Bonds sold off in 2022 as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, but those interest rate hikes now present an opportunity for savers. Figure 2, which graphs the yield across various U.S. Treasury maturities, shows bonds are now more competitive as an income source. Yields on shorter maturity Treasuries approach 5.5%, and investors can lock in a yield near 4% on longer maturity Treasuries. Rather than relying on stocks to generate income, savers can now earn a higher level of income by owning bonds and diversifying their portfolio.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

2Q 2023 Recap & 3Q 2023 Outlook

Financial Markets Rebound in the First Half of 2023

A year can make a big difference. One year ago, the market was trying to catch its breath after a chaotic start to 2022. The Federal Reserve had raised interest rates by 1.5% in a little over three months. Inflation touched 9% as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended commodity markets and competition for employees resulted in wage inflation. The S&P 500’s first half 2022 return was its worst start to a calendar year since 1970. Fast forward 12 months, and the backdrop is markedly different. Oil prices are -33% lower, inflation is running at a 4.1% pace, and the S&P 500 is up +16.7% this year. This letter reviews the second quarter, recaps the strong start to 2023, and discusses the outlook for the second half of the year.

Data Highlights U.S. Economy’s Momentum

While the backdrop has significantly changed, second quarter economic data highlighted the U.S. economy’s continued resilience. In the housing market, new home sales rose more than 10% year-over-year in both April and May as tight inventories pushed homebuyers to the new construction market. Personal income, which measures an individual’s total income from wages, investments, and other sources, continued to grow along with wages and interest income. While unemployment rose slightly to 3.7%, companies added ~300,000 jobs in both April and May. Revised data showed the economy expanded at a faster pace in Q1 than previously estimated. First quarter U.S. GDP growth was revised up to a 2% annualized pace from the initial 1.3% estimate, reflecting upward revisions to exports and consumer spending.

The data underscores the economy’s momentum, but it’s backward-looking rather than forward-looking. How much longer can the U.S. sustain its economic strength? An index of leading economic datapoints suggests the U.S. may be near a turning point. Figure 1 compares the year-over-year change in the Leading Economic Index (LEI) against the Coincident Economic Index (CEI). For context, the LEI is an index of ten economic datapoints whose changes tend to precede changes in the overall economy, such as unemployment claims, building permits, and manufacturing hours worked. The CEI is an index of four datapoints that tend to move with the economy and provide an indication of the current state of the economy, such as industrial production and personal income. The gray shades represent past U.S. recessions.

The chart shows the LEI declined -8% during the past 12 months, an indication the economy may be approaching a turning point as the Fed’s interest rate hikes take effect. In contrast, the CEI rose +2% over the same period, an indication the economy currently remains strong. What does the LEI/CEI divergence imply? Positive CEI doesn’t necessarily mean the economy has avoided a recession, but CEI’s rise does provide additional evidence showing the U.S. economy’s resilience despite higher interest rates. On a related note, the chart shows it’s not uncommon for the LEI to decline even as the CEI remains positive. The red circles highlight prior instances like today, where LEI declined first and then CEI declined later. However, the gay shades show the U.S. economy has been near the start of a recession each time the LEI fell by more than -5% in 12 months.

S&P 500 Companies Beat Q1 Earnings Estimates

Corporate earnings tell a similar story to economic data. While the S&P 500’s earnings declined -2% year-over-year in the first quarter, an increasing number of companies reported results that exceeded analysts’ estimates. Figure 2 graphs the percentage of S&P 500 companies beating sales and earnings estimates during Q1 earnings season. The top chart shows 75% of companies beat their sales estimate in Q1, up from 65% the prior quarter and above the 5-year average of 69%. From an earnings perspective, 78% of companies beat their estimate, up from 69% the prior quarter and slightly above the 5-year average of 76%. Like the economy, investors appear to be underestimating corporate earnings strength.

A look ahead to Q2 earnings season reveals a dynamic that is similar to the LEI/CEI divergence. The S&P 500’s earnings are forecasted to decline -7.1% year-over-year in Q2 2023. For reference, analysts forecasted a -4.7% earnings decline back on March 31 before Q1 earnings season. It’s not uncommon for analysts to revise earnings estimates during earnings season as they get more up-to-date information from companies. The downward revision indicates analysts remain skeptical about companies’ ability to grow earnings in an environment with higher interest rates and the economy returning to trend after a period of strong growth over the past few years. Like economic data, the question is whether the downbeat earnings forecast or Q1’s better-than-expected actual results is more indicative of the path forward.

An Update on the U.S. Banking System

It’s been four months since the first signs of bank turmoil in early March, and data indicates the stress is easing. Bank deposits plunged in March after steadily declining for almost a year, but data from the Federal Reserve shows deposits stabilized in Q2. On a related note, there were concerns deposit outflows would cause banks to slow, and potentially shrink, their lending activity. However, another Federal Reserve dataset shows loans and leases on bank balance sheets held relatively steady in Q2. While banks are not increasing their lending activity, the data indicates they are not pulling back either.

The data suggests banks are on more stable footing today, but there are still questions about the banking system. Recent stability doesn’t necessarily rule out the risk of deposits continuing to trend lower, especially with interest rates remaining elevated. In addition, profitability is a concern. Why? Broadly speaking, banks make money by charging a higher interest rate on loans than the interest rate they pay on deposits. Now that depositors can earn a higher yield on bonds, banks must pay a higher interest rate on deposits. However, banks’ interest income is still tied to loans made during the past few years when interest rates were lower. An increase in interest expense without an offsetting increase in interest income means banks’ profit margins may decline. In addition, there is concern banks may lose money on consumer, business, and real estate loans if the economy weakens. The pressure on deposits eased in Q2, but banks may not be in the clear yet.

Equity Market Recap – The Rally Broadens Out

Equity markets are off to a strong start this year. After a steep sell-off in the first half of 2022, the S&P 500 returned +16.7% in the first half of 2023. The year-to-date gain ranks as the fifth strongest first half return since 1989. The biggest Technology stocks performed even better, with the Nasdaq 100 returning +15.3% in Q2 after its +20.7% Q1 return. The Nasdaq 100’s +39.1% return is the strongest first half year return since 1989, ranking ahead of both 1998 and 1999 during the dot-com bubble. Small cap stocks also participated in the rally, returning +8.1% through the end of June. The year-to-date equity market gains have lifted portfolios after a difficult 2022.

While the S&P 500’s headline return is impressive, a look underneath the surface tells a different story. Figure 3 compares the performance of the S&P 500 Index against an equal weight version of the S&P 500 Index. Why is this relevant? The S&P 500 Index is weighted by market cap, which means the biggest stocks can significantly impact the index’s headline return. An equal weight index neutralizes the impact of the biggest stocks and allows investors to track how the average stock is performing. The chart shows the two versions of the S&P 500 Index traded together in January and February, an indication market cap didn’t significantly impact performance.

However, the market cap and equal weight versions of the S&P 500 diverged in March when the first signs of regional bank turmoil appeared. The S&P 500 traded higher in April and May, while the Equal Weight S&P 500 traded sideways. The split indicates the biggest stocks drove a large portion of the S&P 500’s gain in Q2. While the S&P 500 ended the first half of 2023 with a strong return, the average stock’s return was noticeably smaller and indicates the first half rally was top-heavy. Investors will be watching to see if the first half S&P 500 rally broadens in the second half of the year.

After outperforming in the first quarter, international stocks underperformed U.S. stocks in the second quarter. The MSCI EAFE Index of developed market stocks gained +3.2%, outperforming the MSCI Emerging Market Index’s +1.0% return but underperforming the S&P 500 by -5.5%. Looking across international markets, Latin America was the top performing international region as both Brazil and Mexico traded higher. Latin America is benefitting from geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and China, which is pushing investment toward the region. Within developed markets, Asia outperformed Europe as Japanese stocks traded to a 30-year high. The catch – Japanese stocks are only now getting back to breakeven after the country’s late-1980s real estate bubble popped and the stock market crashed.

Third Quarter Outlook – Can the Good Times Continue?

The first half of 2023 was marked by continued economic resilience and a rebound in the equity market. The U.S. economy outperformed expectations despite the Fed’s aggressive 2022 rate hikes, with new home sales rising, personal income growing, and continued job creation. Corporate earnings exceeded expectations, and the S&P 500 gained more than 15%. In the credit market, the riskiest corporate bonds outperformed as investors collected higher yields.

As the market enters the second half of 2023, investors are left asking whether the good times can continue. The LEI indicates the U.S. economy may be nearing a turning point, and the economic data may start to show the cumulative effect of the Fed’s interest rate hikes. Plus, there is the potential for additional rate hikes in Q3. While the S&P 500 rally was impressive, it was also top-heavy, with larger stocks driving a significant portion of the gains. Corporate earnings are forecasted to decline, and bankruptcy filings could rise further if borrowers struggle to refinance and/or profit margins decline.

While the first half of 2023 was relatively calm, the economy and market face potential challenges in the second half of the year. Our team will continue monitoring conditions as they evolve and will be prepared to adapt portfolios if needed as the second half plays out.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

Comparing the Cost of Renting vs Buying in Today’s Market

Rent vs buy – it’s a big question with big financial implications. Do you make a down payment, take out a mortgage, and build equity? Or do you rent, give yourself more financial flexibility, but miss out on the opportunity to build equity? This month’s chart, which tracks year-over-year growth of monthly rent and mortgage payments since the early 1980s, compares the cost of renting vs buying a home. Looking at the chart, one trend is immediately clear – the cost of renting is less volatile than buying.

Why are mortgage payments more volatile? Purchasing a home is naturally more volatile due to fluctuating home prices and mortgage rates, which directly impact both the loan size and interest charged. For example, monthly mortgage payments grew rapidly in 2005 and 2006 with home price inflation. After the housing bubble popped during the 2008 financial crisis, mortgage payments declined -25% in 2009 as home prices and mortgage rates fell, even as rents continued to grow.

The past few years highlighted the volatility of mortgage payments as homebuyers felt the strain of rising home prices and mortgage rates. S&P’s 20-City Composite Index rose each month from June 2020 through June 2022, with home price growth peaking at +21.2% year-over-year in April 2022. In parallel, the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage climbed from less than 3% in early 2021 to 7% today. While rent payments are rising at the fastest pace in four decades, mortgage payments are rising even faster due to the combination of increasing home prices and mortgage rates.

How do you navigate the current housing market? This is a unique housing market because of the volatility in home prices, mortgage payments, and rent payments. Data shows home prices declined each month from July 2022 through February 2023, but the challenge is prices are still elevated, banks are tightening lending standards, and mortgage rates sit near 7%. Plus, homeowners who refinanced in the past few years will give up their low rate when they sell. Since buying a home is one of the biggest purchases most individuals will make, we recommend taking the time to make an informed decision. Our team stands ready to help when it comes to thinking about your investment portfolio and overall financial plan.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.