Reflecting on the YTD Market Volatility & Recovery

Monthly Market Summary

  • The S&P 500 Index returned +6.3%, its strongest 1-month return since November 2023. Large Cap Growth stocks led the rally, with the Nasdaq 100 and Russell 1000 Growth gaining +9.2% and +8.9%, respectively.
  • Technology was the top-performing S&P 500 sector for a second consecutive month, with the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors also gaining over +8%. Health Care was the only sector to trade lower, and defensive sectors were relative underperformers as the market traded higher.
  • Bonds ended the month with a slight loss, with the U.S. Bond Aggregate posting a -0.6% total return. Corporate bonds outperformed as credit spreads tightened, with investment-grade posting a +0.2% total return and high-yield returning +1.7%.
  • International stocks traded higher but underperformed the S&P 500. Developed Markets gained +4.8%, while Emerging Markets returned +4.0%.

Markets Back Near All-Time Highs, But Forward Visibility Remains Low

The defining story of 2025 has been changing trade policy. Markets have weathered two months of policy-driven volatility, only to end up roughly where they started. After a nearly 20% decline from late February to early April, the S&P 500 has rebounded and is within 4% of its all-time high. What remains is weakened business and consumer confidence, rising inflation expectations, and a Federal Reserve that has paused interest rate cuts. The threat of a full-scale trade war and global supply chain disruption has diminished, but the full impact of recent events may take months to become known. Early economic data suggests the tariffs have had a limited impact, but we will continue monitoring what happens to economic and earnings growth in the coming quarters.

To date, the administration has introduced multiple 90-day tariff pauses. The pauses are temporary and staggered: the pause for most countries runs through early July, while the agreement with China extends through mid-August. A recent court ruling adds a layer of uncertainty by challenging the administration’s authority to impose tariffs, although the decision is under appeal. The U.S. economy entered the year with solid momentum, and current market conditions suggest investors are pricing in only a modest impact from tariffs. With policy details still emerging, markets are likely to remain sensitive to new developments, which could mean continued volatility over the coming months.

Looking Ahead: Navigating Uncertainty with a Steady Plan

What is most notable about this period is how quickly sentiment can change. Markets are forward-looking, which means they price in not only current conditions but also future expectations. This helps explain why the market can rally when data is weak and selloff despite strong earnings and economic growth. The stock market’s sharp decline and quick rebound is a reminder of the importance of maintaining a long-term perspective. Periods like this reinforce several important investment principles. Staying invested can help avoid the costly mistakes of poorly timed exits and re-entries. Emotional discipline and a well-diversified portfolio are your best defenses against making reactive decisions during market volatility. With the potential for more volatility, it’s important to focus on what you can control—diversification, discipline, and sticking to your long-term plan.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

What Should You Actually Do When the Market Drops?

On This Episode

 

The headlines are loud, the markets are messy, and your gut might be telling you to do something — anything — right now. But what should you actually do when your portfolio takes a hit?

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Disclaimer: PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities, investments, or investment strategies. The topics and information discussed during this podcast are not intended to provide tax or legal advice. Investments involve risk, and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial advisor and/or tax professional before implementing any strategy discussed on this podcast. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Insurance products and services are offered and sold through individually licensed and appointed insurance agents.

 

 

Marc:

The headlines are loud, the markets are messy, and your gut might be telling you to do something, anything. So what should you actually do when market downturns happen? Let’s get into it this week here on ‎Retirement Planning – Redefined.

 

Welcome onto the podcast. Thanks for hanging out with John, Nick, and myself as we talk investing, finance, and retirement. And, guys, with all the volatility and stuff happening, I thought it’d be a good idea to maybe address some of this stuff. And we’ve got four key questions maybe to ask ourselves when we’re going through some of this volatility and let you guys give some people insights on what you’re seeing and what your thoughts are when it comes to this kind of stuff. So welcome on this week, John. How you doing, buddy?

 

John:

I’m doing all right.

 

Marc:

Yeah? A little busy?

 

John:

Just getting ready to start a kitchen remodel, which is bringing its own gut check, but doing all right.

 

Marc:

That is true. Very true. And Nick, how are you doing, my friend?

 

Nick:

Good, good. Staying busy. Obviously a little chaotic right now, but knee-deep in wedding planning. So that’s fun.

 

Marc:

So let me ask you guys, before we get into this, when we’re seeing this kind of volatility, do you get many calls? I’ve talked with all kinds of advisors and most of them say a couple, a couple panicked people, but for the most part, their clients have a strategy and a plan in place and it makes it a little easier to handle when there’s volatile times like this. Is that kind of the same for you, or what are you seeing out there?

 

John:

Yeah, I’d agree with that. As we mentioned quite a bit in our last podcast, our last sessions, our practice is generally planning based. So a lot of times people are comfortable with where they are, and we do a good job of reinforcing here’s where you are, here’s your asset allocation, here’s how we structure things for a downturn or some volatility. So I think we do a really good job of making sure people are in the right asset allocation, and not only that, but structuring their assets where when they are using their funds for retirement, we have a plan in place to draw on specific accounts when we are expecting this type of volatility.

 

Marc:

Makes sense. Yeah. Gotcha. Well, as you mentioned, gut check as that kind of goes. So let’s jump in and do these four items here. And that’s the first one. Nick, I’ll let you start if you want to. So when is the last time you checked your strategy? When’s the last time you checked your plan? I hear people saying, “Oh, the market’s down year-to-date, the S&P’s down 13%.” Well, are you down that or are you only down maybe two or three because you hopefully were properly diversified, right? So when’s the last time you checked in on your plan and do you need that gut check? What’s your thoughts?

 

Nick:

Yeah, so we try to make sure we’re updating plans. We’ll go over general numbers each year. And then one thing that we focused quite a bit on last year with clients was updating expenses. With having the inflation like we did for a while, the expenses are obviously a huge driver for clients, and so a lot of our clients are updated. And I know John kind of touched on how many are reaching out. And I would say obviously compared to the clients that we have, there are some that do. And I think the good part about the planning, those that had the planning, we’re just reinforcing and reviewing what we’ve discussed in the past.

 

I had a couple conversations earlier today with similar thoughts and sentiments, and even though most clients know that they have some sort of mix between stocks and bonds, they rarely think about the bond portion not being as volatile. And so that’s something that even where in our minds it might kind of feel basic, these little things, and just kind of talking through and reminding clients about what they actually have, why they’re positioned the way that they’re positioned and why we did the plan. It’s also a reminder for us. We’ve had some clients that maybe six months, 12 months ago, like, “Hey, should we get more aggressive,” et cetera, et cetera. And we kind of emphasized that we’ve had a really good run for a really long time, and at a certain point there’s going to be some sort of pullback. And so I think those clients that both from a being too conservative or being too aggressive standpoint are kind of happy that they have a plan.

 

Marc:

Gotcha. Okay. And so John, that would probably lead to the second step, which is if you are doing that gut check and you do feel like there’s some things you need to do, where are you at with your risk? As I mentioned a second ago, people see the headlines and it makes them panic. It makes them worry, it makes us easily agitated. “Oh, it’s down 13%.” But if you’re not taking 100% risk, you’re probably not down 13 whole percent, right? So it’s about having that risk tolerance adjusted as well.

 

John:

Yeah, and like Nick mentioned, I just had a scenario where this actually came up. They’re watching the news and it’s doom and gloom. And I’ll tell you, I put it on for a little bit sometimes and it’s like, all right, if you’re watching this all day, I could see where people are panicking. But when we did their review, the person was down minimal year to date, and they’re like, “Oh, that’s it?” And it’s just like, “Yeah, you’re doing all right.” And then when you reference the plan and you actually show them, “Hey, based on what just happened this last week, you’re still in good shape and here’s a strategy if this volatility continues, this is how we’re going to handle it if you’re withdrawing from the portfolio.”

 

And then I will say that what Nick said there as well of, people, when things look good, it’s like, “Hey, should I get more aggressive so I can earn more?” And it’s really important just to stay the course because you do have these pullbacks and when you do get more aggressive and let’s say all of a sudden the market pulls back like we’re in the middle of right now and you can’t handle that risk, that’s when you jump ship and then all of a sudden there could be some news that comes out. Literally there could be one bit of news, especially in what we’re dealing with right now and the market could just completely do a 360 and just be positive quite a bit.

 

Marc:

Yeah. At the time we’re taping this, we saw that to open up today. It went up about 4% in the first half of the day, and then it started to cool back off. So there’s still a lot of things flowing back and forth, Nick, and that again leads back to strategy, right? So that’s the third piece of this conversation. Do you have a strategy and are there some things that we should look at, try to find the positives or the silver linings of downturns? What are some things we could maybe, some smart moves we could be looking at?

 

Nick:

Yeah, just even before we get into that, I wanted to touch on John’s last point, just from the standpoint of part of the conversation that we’ve been having with people is that the volatility in the markets, both good and bad, are so much quicker than they were years ago. There’s a lot of people that are used to prolonged just slow bleed downturns. And where from hour to hour, day to day, you can have a correction and then claw half of it back within a few days. And just kind of shifting out during that period of time can be pretty deadly for a portfolio.

 

But from the standpoint of what can be done now or what could make sense now with what you alluded to, dependent upon, it is a good time to kind of do that check on overall risk, potentially integrating in some rebalancing of the portfolio. We try to have clients have some cash on the sidelines no matter what. And it could be a decent time to average in some of that money if they’re looking to reinvest.

 

For those that are still working, I think the emphasis that we put on is buying at a discount when you’re averaging in every month and that sort of thing. And then even from the perspective of, and it’s something that we are reviewing, tax loss harvesting in taxable investment accounts can be something that makes sense. I will say that unless there’s, so many people’s positions are up or vary in the green that it can be a little hard even still with this pullback to get some losses and offset some gains and that sort of thing. But we can also take advantage of some of the losses to offset future gains as well. So those are all things that we’re reviewing.

 

Marc:

Yeah. And a lot of people are taught, have been wanting to do Roth conversions, for example, right? Well, I mean, kind of silver lining when your accounts are down a little bit in a 401. Maybe you’re doing some conversions over to Roth and you’re paying lower taxes because the balances are down. And then when the market comes back, because it tends to do, as long as your plan calls for it, then you’re gaining that money back tax-free. So different kinds of silver linings. You have to work with a professional, you have to work with an advisor to find your way through some of these tougher times. And so that brings us to the final point, which is unhelpful behaviors, right? So what are some things, guys, we need to stop doing right now if we’re getting stressed out? John, you kind of hit it perfectly on the head, said you watched it for half an hour or an hour and it’s like, “Yeah, no wonder people are getting down, right?”

 

John:

Yeah, it’s definitely doom and gloom out there. So I would say whatever station you’re watching the last couple of weeks, it’s definitely everything’s negative.

 

Marc:

And that’s their job. We have to be realistic about that. That’s all they’re going… They’re not going to talk about the positives very often, right? They’re looking for the eyeballs from the panic, right?

 

John:

Yeah, hundred percent. I think negative news typically rates better. So that’s why you continually see the negative news drip on everybody. But back to one thing you mentioned there, Marc, about the Roth conversions. I just want to point out that is a great strategy when the market dips down, if you’re currently implementing a Roth conversion strategy. It is typically a good time to do it when we’re having a pullback.

 

Trying to time it perfectly is obviously going to be difficult to do, but you just try to do your best with that. But when you are converting, just want to make it clear to anyone listening, you typically want to, when you’re converting for the strategy of a lower balance and paying lower taxes on the specific shares, you want to do a Roth conversion, that’s you keep your shares. So you’re doing kind of a transfer of shares over to the Roth versus cashing out and sending the cash over and then rebuying it. So just be careful. If you’re working with an advisor, just understand, hey, if we’re doing a Roth conversion, are you cashing it out? Are you transferring over the shares? Because we feel it’s best to transfer over the shares so that we don’t have to rebuy them.

 

Marc:

Yeah. No, definitely. I just was thinking that that was another little piece, so thank you for kind of taking it a little deeper, if that’s part of your current strategy. So yeah, turning off the news is certainly a helpful behavior. What else, Nick, you got anything else that you’d like to chime in on that topic?

 

Nick:

Yeah, as somebody that has sometimes a tendency to doom scroll a little bit and try to suck in as much information and try to be able to understand different points of view and all that kind of stuff, it is important to take a break. Something as simple as getting outside, going for a walk, having a conversation. One of the things we try to emphasize with our clients is that if you’re getting to that point where severe high level anxiety, maybe concerned about starting to make poor decisions or overreact to anything, is just reach out. Usually the feedback that we get when we just have a conversation with somebody is that able to give perspective. And realistically, what happened yesterday in the markets, which we had a fake post about a change to the tariffs and the market swung like 7 or 8% in five minutes and all this other stuff, really kind of emphasizes the fact that volatility is different than it used to be and overreacting can be something that really hurts you and your overall position.

 

Marc:

That’s a great point, right? I mean, we’re certainly, the doom scrolling, the second by second feedback, you have to have a strategy, right? And our own worst enemy is ourself. We tend to jump out and do things and then we lock in those losses. So again, before you take any action on something you hear from even our conversation or any other thing that you hear that they’re financially based, you should always run that past a financial professional as it relates to your specific unique situation, as the guys pointed out numerous times today in the show.

 

So if you need some help with that, stop by on the website or give them a call and set up a time to chat, pfgprivatewealth.com, that’s pfgprivatewealth.com, or call 813-286-7776. Guys, thanks for hanging out and breaking it down a little bit. Hopefully people keep their heads and we’ll see how this plays out. It could be short-lived, it could be a little longer term. So get a strategy. At the end of the day, that’s what’s important. So the guys can help you with retirement planning redefined. We’ll see you next time here on the podcast.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Understanding the Current Market Selloff

Recap of Year-to-Date Market Performance

Stocks started 2025 trading higher but have since pulled back. The S&P 500 has declined more than -8% from its all-time high on February 19th, lowering its year-to-date return to -5% (Figure 1). The Nasdaq 100, an index of technology and growth stocks, is down -7% year-to-date, while the small-cap-focused Russell 2000 has fallen -9%. The Magnificent 7, a group that includes Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla, has declined nearly -15%. Given the recent volatility, our team wanted to discuss the current environment and provide a market update.

What’s Behind the Market Selloff?

Several factors are contributing to the current market selloff. First, momentum stocks that led the 2024 rally are now experiencing a sharp reversal. Figure 2 shows 2024’s top performers have become 2025’s underperformers. Technology stocks, the Magnificent 7, and Large Cap Growth powered last year’s gains, fueled by enthusiasm for the artificial intelligence industry. However, the concentrated rally led to stretched valuations and crowded positioning, particularly among the biggest companies. As those stocks lose momentum, it’s triggering a rapid unwind, with a large amount of capital rotating at once. Second, investor exposure to the stock market was high entering 2025. Households’ allocation to stocks reached a record high, and institutional investors, such as pension funds, endowments, and insurance companies, increased their leverage and equity exposure last year as stocks traded higher. Now, institutional investors and hedge funds are deleveraging, adding to the selling pressure. Third, optimism around the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies has given way to concern, with worries that spending cuts and the uncertainty created by tariffs will slow economic growth.

Market Volatility vs. Economic Reality

It’s important to remember that the stock market isn’t the economy, with some data points signaling a different economic reality. The Federal Reserve’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI), which tracks real-time activity using data such as unemployment claims, rail traffic, steel production, and tax withholdings, remains positive (Figure 3). Despite recent stock market volatility, the WEI suggests the broader economy hasn’t felt a significant impact. In the bond market, high-yield credit spreads, which measure the difference in yield between riskier corporate bonds and U.S. Treasuries, remain near all-time lows (Figure 4). The stability of credit spreads indicates that, so far, the selloff has been largely confined to the stock market. Together, these two data points suggest the recent volatility may be a market-specific adjustment rather than a systemic issue or sign of broader financial strain.

Is This Normal and Can the Market Selloff Continue?

Market volatility can be unsettling, but it’s a normal part of investing. Periods of enthusiasm often lead to recalibration. It’s natural to feel uncertain, but history shows that staying invested through volatility and maintaining a longer-term view is a prudent approach. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has experienced a decline of -5% or more in 91 of the past 98 years. Yet, markets have demonstrated an ability to recover and rewarded patience. By maintaining a diversified portfolio aligned with your long-term goals, we’re positioned to weather the market’s swings.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

Inauguration Week – 5 Market Themes to Watch

This week’s inauguration activities in Washington mark Donald Trump’s return to the White House. As the second Trump administration starts, the market is looking ahead to what changes may take place in the coming years. In this one-pager, we briefly examine five key themes investors are monitoring as the political backdrop shifts in Washington. Before we dive in, it’s important to emphasize that policy changes often take time to materialize. Politicians make many promises during election years, and the government’s system of checks and balances can delay their implementation or cause them to remain unfulfilled. It’s important to recognize that the market could remain volatile as we await details about the administration’s policy agenda, with a steady stream of news headlines shaping sentiment.

1. Optimism Over Deregulation and Tax Cuts: There’s a sense of optimism among investors, with the administration expected to focus on deregulation and extending the tax cuts from the first Trump administration. These changes are seen as creating a more business-friendly environment, which could boost U.S. corporate profits and extend the stock market’s recent gains. Sectors such as finance, energy, and manufacturing are viewed as the most likely beneficiaries of these potential policy shifts.

2. Concerns About Global Tariffs and Trade Wars: Investors are concerned about the reintroduction or escalation of tariffs. Given Donald Trump’s history with trade policies, there is concern that trade disputes could resurface. This could negatively impact stocks and lead to slower economic growth by disrupting global trade, increasing costs for businesses, and contributing to inflation. However, if negotiations take place and agreements are reached quickly, investors’ worst fears may be overblown, an outcome that would be a positive development for the market.

3. Market Volatility and Policy Uncertainty: As with all new administrations, Donald Trump’s return to office has brought about renewed policy uncertainty and the potential for heightened market volatility in the near term. Markets are monitoring his early actions and executive orders to understand the ultimate direction of his administration’s policies. Given the headline-driven volatility in the first Trump administration, there is an expectation for increased volatility early in his second term, with a continual flow of news headlines driving sentiment until actual details emerge.

4. Bitcoin and Crypto Markets: Donald Trump’s evolving views and campaign comments on cryptocurrencies led to a post-election rally in Bitcoin and other crypto assets. Some investors interpret his comments and policy proposals as favorable for digital currencies, particularly his embrace of cryptocurrency during the campaign. In addition, the SEC recently established a “crypto task force” aimed at developing a regulatory framework for crypto assets. There is optimism about the potential for technological innovation with cryptocurrencies; however, speculation and sentiment shifts continue to largely dominate crypto markets, a trend that could continue in 2025.

5. Market Sentiment: The overall sentiment is characterized by cautious optimism. Investors are weighing potential benefits like tax reform and deregulation against risks such as inflation, trade tensions, and policy uncertainty. Markets are largely adopting a “wait and see” approach, holding off on making significant moves until more details emerge. The mixed early reaction highlights the complex and wide-ranging impact of Trump’s policies on the stock market, with investors preparing for both opportunities and challenges ahead. As always, maintaining a diversified portfolio and a long-term perspective can help navigate the uncertainties of shifting policy landscapes.

Please feel free to reach out to your advisor with any questions or to schedule a review.

PFG Private Wealth Management
(813) 286-7776

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.

Investing Based on Politics is a Bad Idea for Your Retirement Portfolio

As the 2024 presidential election approaches, Americans are preparing to vote in what polls forecast to be a tight race. Like many investors, you may wonder how the election outcome could affect financial markets and whether you should change your investment strategy. While elected leaders can influence economic growth by enacting laws and regulations, data suggests that who occupies the White House has little to no impact on investment performance. Fundamental factors like corporate earnings growth and valuations impact the stock market far more than political headlines. Politicians make many promises during election years, but these often go unfulfilled because of the government’s system of checks and balances. Moreover, the economic outcomes of policies are less predictable than officials think, with the economy more influenced by factors like job growth, interest rates, and inflation.

The charts below illustrate the financial impact of allowing political beliefs to influence investment decisions. The chart on the left graphs the S&P 500 Index starting with Dwight Eisenhower’s presidency in 1953 and is color-coded by political party. The graph on the right compares the investment performance of portfolio decisions made based on political affiliation. If an investor only invested in the stock market when a Republican was President, $10,000 would have grown into $83k today, excluding dividends. Investing only when a Democrat was President would have returned $254k. While the gap may seem wide, if an investor ignored the president’s political party and remained invested, the $10,000 would have grown to over $2.1 million.

Political views can stir strong emotions, but making investment choices based on those feelings can lead to poor portfolio decisions. Instead, it’s better to focus on time-tested investment principles and avoid letting politics influence your long-term strategy. The U.S. economy’s success, growth, and resiliency don’t change with each new election, and neither should your investment strategy. It’s best to express political opinions at the ballot box, not in your portfolio.

Important Notices & Disclaimer

The information and opinions expressed herein are solely those of PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC (PFG), are provided for informational purposes only and are not intended as recommendations to buy or sell a security, nor as an offer to buy or sell a security. Recipients of the information provided herein should consult with their financial advisor before purchasing or selling a security.

The information and opinions provided herein are provided as general market commentary only, and do not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any one client. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor.

The comments may not be relied upon as recommendations, investment advice or an indication of trading intent. PFG is not soliciting any action based on this document. Investors should consult with their financial adviser before making any investment decisions. There is no guarantee that any future event discussed herein will come to pass. The data used in this publication may have been obtained from a variety of sources including U.S. Federal Reserve, FactSet, Bloomberg, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, iShares, Vanguard and State Street, which we believe to be reliable, but PFG cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of data used herein. Any use of graphs, text or other material from this report by the recipient must acknowledge MarketDesk Research as the source. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.   Investing   involves   risk,   including   the possible loss of principal and fluctuation of value. PFG disclaims responsibility for updating information. In addition, PFG disclaims responsibility for third-party content, including information accessed through hyperlinks.

No mention of a particular security, index, derivative or other instrument in the report constitutes a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold that or any other security, nor does it constitute an opinion on the suitability of any security, index, or derivative. The report is strictly an information publication and has been prepared without regard to the particular investments and circumstances of the recipient.

READERS   SHOULD   VERIFY   ALL   CLAIMS   AND   COMPLETE    THEIR    OWN RESEARCH AND CONSULT A REGISTERED FINANCIAL PROFESSIONAL BEFORE INVESTING IN ANY INVESTMENTS MENTIONED IN THE PUBLICATION. INVESTING IN SECURITIES AND DERIVATIVES IS SPECULATIVE AND CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE OF RISK, AND READERS MAY LOSE MONEY TRADING AND INVESTING IN SUCH INVESTMENTS.

PFG Private Wealth Management, LLC is a registered investment advisor.